Mattingly and Baker, or “Taking Charge And Not Taking Charge”

Today’s episode Of “First Take” on ESPN had the two great pros at the debate table, Stephen A. Smith and Skip Bayliss.  These two fan-favorites are known for their passionate, but generally respectful go-arounds.  However, this show featured two consecutive topics which were noticeable more for their own contrast than for the opposing views they didn’t elicit from Smith & Bayliss (or Bayliss & Smith, if you prefer).

What  Started  Phillips  vs.  Reporter

The first segment concerned Brandon Phillips’ expletive-laced response to a Reds beat writer’s tweet, described the MLB.com article by Mark Sheldon and a clip from ESPN attached to his posting.  The setting was the manager’s pre-game meeting with the press.  C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer had tweeted that afternoon that the Reds lineup change moving Brandon Phillips from the clean-up spot to the #2 spot was “Reds go from a hitter with a .320 OBP in the 2 hole to one with a .310.”

Both  Player  and  Writer  Are  at  Fault

As an ESPN analyst mentioned in the clip, this should normally not cause any commotion.  But he added, “You don’t know that dude BP.  He loves Twitter.”

From a fan’s standpoint, it looks to me like it was a writer trying too hard to make a non-existent point.  A ten point difference in OBPis immaterial; both are bad for a guy behind the leadoff hitter.  More importantly, it also conveniently ignores that the .310 OBP belongs to a guy who is normally a very adept #2 hitter and who has somehow converted an off-year .266 average into an NL 3^rd best 95 RBI coming from the clean-up spot he’s unaccustomed to. (Rosecrans would fit in with some writers covering politics.)

The analysts correctly suggested that an outburst might have been expected considering that, at that time, the Reds had just experienced two painful losses in the park of the team they need to catch.¹  According to Sheldon, it was also the last day of a tough 20-game, 20-day stretch for the Reds in the normally stressful dog days of August.

Of course, the magnitude of the player’s response is another matter.  The four-letter word exchange of unpleasantries took place on both sides of the manager, out of sight of the viewers but not out of hearing.  It did not represent either profession well.  Stephen A. Smith noted correctly that Brandon Phillips has now made himself a target of writers following the Reds, although the Enquirer’s sports editor dismissed it.²

Manager  Baker  Verbally  Washes  His  Hands

But Stephen A. made another key point.  This escalating situation was happening during the manager’s pre-game press conference.  He should have been the presiding judge (my words).  Instead, we see Dusty with an embarrassed smile.  He appeared to be more caught off-guard than willing to use his position as “the leader of men”³ to stop the festivities.  Thus, we hear Dusty say, “I ain’t in that one.  It’s between you and him.”  To which the sportswriter said, “It’s between him and him.”  Dusty’s only follow-up was, “OK, well that’s even better.”

Stephen A. was upset that Baker did not stop the situation as he could have.  He should have told Phillips to take a break and leave the scene before it became worse.  Besides being the leader of men, he also represents the team and is responsible for maintaining a g reputation.  Taking charge didn’t happen.

Mattingly,  However,  DID  Take  Charge  of  His  Player’s  Attitude

The next “First Take” debate point concerned Don Mattingly’s removal of 22-year old rookie sensation Yasiel Puig before the fifth inning of last night’s Dodgers game.  Writers suggested a number of things that led to Puig’s removal (not sliding into second on a close play, looking bad at the plate and an exaggerated non-chalance in the outfield in addition to previous incidences).  However, manager Don Mattingly said he preferred to keep it “in-house.”⁴

It was known that “After the game, there were closed-door meetings involving club president Stan Kasten, general manager Ned Colletti, Mattingly and Puig.”⁴

“’I talk to him like I talk to my kids, honestly,’ Mattingly said after emerging from a 40-minute media lockout. ‘I try to be honest and represent the whole ballclub with the decisions I make and I feel, in a sense, it was in the best interests of the team.’”⁴

Support  for  Mattingly  in  Making  His  Point

Stephen A. acknowledged the wisdom of Mattingly’s decision with “He’s 22-years old (Puig)… If you don’t stop it now, it’s only going to get worse.”  After some agreement with Skip Bayliss on several aspects of Puig’s potential, he added, “But you can’t allow this kid to think that he has ‘arrived.’”

But  is  This  an  “Apples  and  Oranges”  Comparison?

OK, Brandon Phillips is a 32-year old veteran with 5,079 at bats, three Gold Gloves and who has proven his worth since coming to the Reds for the 2006 season.  Puig is a 22-year old with 289 at bats in his first partial major league season.

Age is irrelevant because we’re dealing with public actions which reflect not only on the player, but on each organization.  True, it has been a very stressful time for the Reds.  However, Brandon should know better and be above an irre implied analysis by a sportswriter who returned to Cincinnati and wants to make a name for himself among some veteran competition.

When things get rough on the diamond or in the press conference, a manager needs to be able to step forward and get emotions back in order – regardless of the stature of the participants.  Mattingly took the bull by the horns.  Baker looked as though he stepped into the bullring unarmed.

Mattingly  Appears  to Have  Accomplished  a  Mission

Yasiel Puig’s response to the incident gives hope that he understood Mattingly’s message by “’I felt the meeting went well,’ Puig said through an interpreter. ‘We talked about what I and every player needs to do to prepare for every pitch. I thought it was a good meeting. If I’m in the lineup on Friday, I will make sure to give 100 percent. If not, I will prepare to make sure I’m ready when my turn comes.’”⁴

As for Phillips, the Reds manager sent no message when it was needed most.  Guess we have to wait and see what Twitter reveals.

Final  Comment:  This  Isn’t  a  Precedent  for  Baker

If the age difference of the two players causes the reader to absolve Dusty in this case, let’s go back a couple of years with this “player’s manager.”

Two years ago, a different Cuban multi-million dollar signing was in his first full season with the Reds (Aroldis Chapman).   He endured a scary time where, in four appearances, he walked twelve and retired just four batters.  Twice, he did not retire anyone.⁵

In one of those outings, I recall the radio announcers saying that the 23-year old experienced a 10mph drop in his pitches from what was normal for him.  After the game, reporters asked Dusty about his visit to the mound and he said he was assured by Aroldis that he was OK, so he left him in.

Since when does a 61-year old manager allow the 23-year old to call the shots?  When something happens to a $30.25 million player, the guy who writes the lineup must also make the key decisions.  Enough said… without remembering the Dusty-Manager-Missing stunning collapses of the Giants, Cubs and Reds of prior mishaps.

^{1 –}  and winning just three of the last thirty series in that city might make a team even more sensitive to perceived negative reporting

² – “Angel Rodriguez issued this response on the newspaper’s website: ‘While we are disappointed in Phillips’ reaction, we understand it is a pennant race and emotions are high during a crucial series with a heated rival. This isn’t the first time a player has lost his temper in response to a reporter’s questions and it won’t be the last. It is part of covering the team day-in day-out.’” (article by Mark Sheldon, MLB.com, “Phillips expresses displeasure with reporter,” 8/29/2013)

³ – Stephen A. Smith’s description of what a manager is

⁴ – “After early removal, Puig vows to give ‘100 percent,’” article by Ken Gurnick, MLB.com, 8/28/2013

⁵ – “Reds’ Aroldis Chapman out with shoulder injury,” by Joe Kay of the Associated Press, posted on www.kentucky.com, 5/17/2011

Aroldis as a Starting Pitcher: Good or Bad Idea?

Cincinnati Reds General Manager Walt Jocketty has to feel good about the upcoming season when he surveys the team he is in charge of and sees just one issue left for the Winter Hot Stove League: Will converting closer Aroldis Chapman to a starting pitcher work?  The burning question has been smoldering for nearly three years since his recall from Louisville during the 2010 season.  At AAA, Chapman made 39 appearances with 13 starts and one complete game.  He also had eight saves in nine opportunities.¹

Chapman  Has  Shown  Ability  As  a  Starter

Aroldis was signed out of Cuba where he was a starter.  While it was suspected that he pitched less frequently than a starter would in the five-man U.S. rotation, he had a proven ability to pitch the multiple innings per appearance required of a starter.  He also showed in last year’s spring training that he could be effective as starting pitcher.  The only reason he was moved back to the bullpen was due to the season-ending injury to newly acquired closer Ryan Madson, who has since signed with the Angels.

What  About  the  Reds  Closer?

Still, the debate remains and with good reason.  Some are questioning the wisdom of moving a closer, and a lefthander, who held opponents to a meager  .141 average last season with the pressure on and a .149 average for his total major league experience covering 135 innings.  Bronson Arroyo  has been named among those who think Aroldis should stay in the bullpen.²   Pete Rose, in a Cincinnati sports talk show radio interview a couple of weeks ago, was adamant that teams should always prize an effective closer and not change his role.  Meanwhile, Reds pitching coach Bryan Price and broadcaster Jeff Brantley (615 appearances, 172 saves. 3.39 ERA, .237 opp. Batting average in 14 seasons)¹ are confident the transition will work to the benefit of both Chapman and the Reds.²

As far as the closer situation is concerned, Jonathan Broxton is capable.  He had 84 saves in 6+ seasons with the Dodgers and 23 with the Royals in 2012 before coming to the Reds where had picked up four more saves.  In the majors, he has held opponents to a .226 average.¹  Broxton is a known asset.

What  Lefty  Relievers  Remain?

If Chapman leaves the pen, the Reds still have Sean Marshall, another capable known quantity.  In the last three seasons (two with the Cubs and last year with Cincinnati), he has held all batters to an average under .235 each year.¹  In 2012, left-handed batters hit only .173 against Marshall.³

The Reds also have an often-overlooked luxury.  FOUR of the Reds righties in the bullpen held left-handed hitters to sub .200 averages in 2012. Rookie J.J.Hoover led the parade holding lefty batters to a .120 average in 30.2 IP, followed by Broxton (.147 in 22.1 IP with the Reds), Jose Arredondo (.165 in 61 IP) and Logan Ondrusek (.190 in 54.2 IP). Granted, AL lefty batters hit .258 against Broxton last season.³  However, the records of those four pitchers certainly soften any concern about having enough relievers capable of handling left-handed batters in crucial situations.  This is especially true for Arredondo and Ondrusek who have shown this same ability in prior seasons.

The  Transition

This spring training will proceed the same as last year for Aroldis.  While it’s understood that it’s unlikely he’ll pitch 200 innings this year, the hope is that 2013 will set up next season for a full number of innings.  Time will tell how his stamina holds up over the course of a full season as a starter in the major leagues.  Hopefully, the concern with how long it will take recovering after a start in the second half of the season will not be related in any way to his limitations as a reliever pitching a second day in a row or three out of four.

Develop  Another  Breaking  Pitch?

There will be attention to having him perfect another breaking pitch.  In 2012, Aroldis threw fastballs 81% of the time and hitters flailed away at a pathetic .132 clip.  Sliders were 12% of his pitches and, if you can believe this, batters did worse with this pitch (.091).  The key point is the change-up. Batters hit .364 off the change-up which he used just 6% of the time.²  It is highly unlikely that Chapman will develop a devastating curve a la Koufax.  Nevertheless, a second breaking pitch for the Cuban Missile will be important.

Historical  Perspective

Many pitchers have successfully made the transition from reliever to starter and vice versa.  Dennis Eckersley and John Smoltz both went from established starters to premier closers.  Going in the other direction might be different.  Hall of Famer Rich (Goose) Gossage antagonized batters to the tune of 310 saves, 1502 strikeouts and only 119 homers in 1809 IP and an overall average of .228 in 1002 appearances.  Most forget that his first team, the White Sox, made him a starter for one full season.  While it wasn’t a complete failure (9-17 but a 3.94 ERA [major league mean was 3.52] in 31 games, 29 starts… and FIFTEEN complete games, 224 IP and a .254 average against), they wisely returned him to the bullpen and his Hall of Fame career was proceeded.  Incidentally, in the previous season of 1975, Gossage had 26 saves and a 1.84 ERA.¹

Reds fans will certainly be watching this unfold closely.  They are hoping all goes smoothly for the talented lefty who will turn 25 years old on Feb. 28 — the same age Gossage was the year he was a starter! The proponents are banking on the fact that Chapman has been a starter before, that he has not thrown a dangerously high number of innings early in his career,⁴ and that his mentors seem aware that a sensible plan is mandatory.  Perhaps, the stand that the Nationals took with Strasburg last year will serve as an example of prudence over ambition.  Starting April 1^st, we’ll see!

¹ – www.mlb.com
² – John Erardi, Cincinnati Enquirer, 2/3/2013
^{3 —} USA Today Sports Weekly Special Edition, published November, 2012
⁴ – In the mid to late 1980s, Baseball Digest printed a study on pitchers since 1900.  It focused on innings workload for pitchers prior to reaching age 25.

RedHawk Fans Amused at U.C.’s “Plight”

[originally posted on my other site, cartaremi.wordpress.com, 12/6/2012 as “RedHawk  Fans  Amused  at  Bearcats’  “Plight”]

The corner headline on the Thursday, November 29, 2012 edition of the Cincinnati Enquirer read, “UC’s teams stuck in Big East.”  The accompanying sub-headline “ACC rejects bid to step up, gives open slot to Louisville” ¹ was followed by a summary of the latest in the on-going shifts in college conferences.

The Atlantic Coast Conference had been deciding which university was going to fill the vacancy created when Maryland decided to join the Big Ten in 2014.  The University of Louisville, the University of Cincinnati (UC) and the University of Connecticut were the candidates for that spot.  “The mood was somber as news reached the University of Cincinnati Athletic Department that the Atlantic Coast Conference had chosen Louisville over UC…. (who) instead will remain a member of a Big East that will include many of the Conference USA schools with which the Bearcats were happy to part company when they left C-USA in 2005.” ¹

At this point, Miami University Redhawk fans could be heard chuckling a mere 33 miles away in Oxford, Ohio.  Poetic justice can be so painfully ironic.  For the last seven years, MU had been putting up with the implication that it was lucky to be considered as an opponent worthy to occupy a spot in UC’s valuable schedule.  The annual basketball rivalry was suspended, and then resumed as a two-for-one home and away series instead of alternating years at each school.

Even the 120-plus year old football Victory Bell rivalry (the longest continuous battle west of the Alleghenies) was in jeopardy as UC assessed its priorities.  It wasn’t sure whether, as a member of the big-time Big East, it could afford to continue being associated with such non-BCS company.  This rivalry had survived numerous times of war, the Great Depression and many social upheavals.  Now it was in danger of being deemed irrelevant by UC despite Miami’s two #10 final poll rankings in its history – the most recent just a couple of years before UC headed to the Big East.

Meanwhile, Miami will continue its proud 65-year association with the unheralded Mid-American Conference (MAC).  This lowly MAC is a conference which boasted two Top 25 teams in its football championship game this season.  It received seven bowl bids this year, including Northern Illinois which is going to the Orange Bowl – a game in which UC participated recently.

As for UC, RedHawk fans’ sentiments will be directed toward the well-being of their nearby brothers and sisters.  MU supporters will hope that, somehow, UC can feel respectable once again!

¹ – Bill Koch and Cliff Peale, Cincinnati Enquirer, 11/29/2012

RISP Woes of 2012 Cin. Reds

[originally posted on my other site, cartaremi.wordpress.com, 11/26/2012 as “Proving  That the  2012  Cincinnati  Reds  DID  Have  Problems  With  RISP  and  Where  They  Could  Improve”]

The Sunday, October 28, 2012 edition of the Cincinnati Enquirer ran an article by Reds beat writer John Fay addressing annual end-of-season points of interest for local baseball fans.  Among those was a section about the conventional wisdom that a fatal flaw for this year’s NL Central Division champions was their inability to hit in the clutch, or “RISP” (Runners in Scoring Position).

The writer described comments by someone while he was at a butcher shop.  A guy said, “They get runners on.  They just can’t ‘em in.”  He thought that comment was plausible and added in his column, “I would have guessed that the numbers back him up.  They don’t at least when compared to the teams that made the National League Championship Series.”

A) John Fay’s conclusion was based on the fact that, while the Cardinals and Giants hit better than the Reds did overall, their loss was greater in RISP situations as seen below:

	Overall	RISP	Diff.
St. Louis	.271	.264	-7
San Fran.	.269	.259	-10
Cincinnati	.251	.245	-6

The problem is:  while the Reds performance with RISP was slightly more consistent when compared to their overall average, they still hit below the major league median of .256 with RISP while the Cardinals and Giants remained above the ML median.

B)  I’ve extended the analysis to include RISP ranking among all major league teams plus the other “Final Four” NL team, the Washington Nationals:

Overall RISP ML RISP Rank TPA* RISP St. Louis    .271 .264        9th      2nd San Fran.    .269 .259      13th      1st Washington    .261 .256      15th     12th Cincinnati    .251 .245      21st     17th *- Total Plate Appearances

Of the four teams in the NLDS, only the Reds RISP average was below the major league median. In addition, the Cardinals and Giants manufactured the most RISP opportunities in the entire ML while the Reds were just below the median.  This combination of fewer RISP opportunities coupled with a below average conversion rate contributed to Cincinnati’s offense ranking 21^st in runs scored.

The surprising contradiction to common wisdom came in the area that the Reds “get runners on.”  Looking at the four NLDS teams, the ML rankings for OBP were:  St. Louis (1^st), San Francisco (8^th), Washington (12^th) and Cincinnati (21^st)!  A key  to the Giants’ success was their ability to make the most of their offense.  They took the 8^th highest number of baserunners and created the most RISP situations despite hitting fewer doubles (the “easiest” way to achieve an RISP) than the Nationals or the Reds.  Conversely, Cincinnati had the 7^th most doubles, but finished 17^th in the number of RISP opportunities.

C)  Two other aspects of clutch hitting are efficiency of scoring after having RISP with two outs and cashing in on opportunities of “runners at third with fewer than two outs.”

				Runs scored
	RISP-2outs	ML Rank		runners @ 3rd <2outs	TPA
St. Louis	.238	13th		3rd	4th
San Francisco	.213	25th		1st	1st
Washington	.252	6th		18th	9th
Cincinnati	.198	30th		16th	15th

Considering the NL’s “Final Four” one more time, only the Giants approached the Reds’ ineptitude in the RISP-2 outs situations (and that includes OBP and Slug., not listed in this graph).  However, they offset some of the negative effects of this by creating the most “runner on 3^rd with less than 2 outs” situations of all thirty ML teams and scoring by far the most in this circumstance (299 which was 62, or a whopping 26% more than the second best team, Colorado).  Leading the majors with 61 sacrifice flies helped San Francisco.

The Reds were dead last in RISP-2 outs and just average in getting runners in from third when getting them there with zero or one out.   Of the four, the Reds also had the fewest bases loaded situations (124 compared to the Nationals’ 167, Giants’ 160 and Cardinals’ 154).

Conclusion:  The 2012 Cincinnati Reds most certainly had difficulties in converting scoring opportunities.  Their troubles were from a combination of fewer than average RISP situations compounded by a below average conversion rate, especially in two-out situations.

D)  How might the Reds improve their offense?

1)  Doubles:  Again, this is the “easiest” way to get a runner into scoring position.  However, the Reds are already doing well as they ranked 7^th in the majors after being 22^nd in 2011.  As a whole, the four NLCS teams were between 5^th and 10^th in 2012.

2)  OBP: Obviously, having more runners on base increases the chances of getting them into scoring position.  The Reds have been on a roller-coaster in this category.  Between 2007-09, their OBP ranking dropped from 16^th to 28^th.  It jumped in 2010 to 5^th, but slipped to 9th in ’11 and then 21^st in this past season.

Being more selective at the plate, especially when hitting behind in the count, would help.  In 2012, the Reds were 23^rd in all three hitting categories (average, OBP and Slug.) when behind in the count.  Their hitters also had the 8^th highest number of strikeouts.  When ahead in the count last season, the Reds improved to 17^th-17^th-10^th in those categories.  Washington was the best of the four when ahead in the count.  The Cardinals were the most consistent in both areas for that group.  Although the Giants were slightly worse than the Reds when ahead, they countered by being 1^st-3^rd-11^th in the majors when behind in the count.  It’s becoming easy to see how San Francisco and St. Louis were so good.  They were much “tougher outs.”

3)  Stolen bases are helpful, but not always necessary because of differences in the styles of successful teams.  From 2007-11, the Reds were consistent with major league rankings in the 14^th-18^th range or about average.  This past year, however, they fell to 26^th place.  An improvement can’t all fall on the shoulders of Drew Stubbs, plus Billy Hamilton is at least one full season away.  Nevertheless, a team’s style can suggest that this is not important if it can bunt runners over (the next category).  The other LCS teams were better in stealing than the Reds, but were ranked just 10^th (SF), 14^th (Wsh) and 24^th (StL).

4)  Sacrifice bunts (SH) and avoiding double plays:  Surprisingly, or at least to this writer, the Reds were 4^th in the majors in SH this past season. The four teams above them in the rankings and the five teams below them had higher OBP, so it’s safe to say that Cincinnati made concerted efforts to bunt without my having to prove it by calculating its tendency to sacrifice (which compares successful bunts to approx. number of bunting opportunities).  Incidentally, the Giants and Cardinals were tied for 6^th and the Nationals were 15^th in sacrifice bunts, all average or better.

The Reds were also the best of the four at avoiding hitting into the dreaded dp’s, which reduce RISP opportunites.  They were tied for 26^th in GIDP while the Cardinals (8^th) and Giants (15^th) didn’t fare as well (Nationals were 21^st or very good, too).

CONCLUSION:  It may be a little simplistic, but a case can be made that the Reds would help themselves a lot by being more disciplined at the plate to increase OBP and likely to improve their hitting with RISP as well.  Cincinnati’s ability to hit doubles and bunt runners over seems solid, so it’s more a matter of having more runners on base. 

Home runs are useful, especially in a homer-friendly park like their home at GABP.  The Giants were dead last in homers partly due to playing 81 games in a park not known for homers.  However, they still had to play another 81 games in a variety of parks, thus necessitating being able to manufacture runs.  As the Reds and Giants had very similar home and road records, this suggestion for the Reds is not so much aimed at improving a fine 97-win season, but to make them less vulnerable when playing the variety of best teams in the post-season.

In summary, the three 2012 NL LDS teams which did better than the Reds offensively put more pressure on the opposition by creating more scoring opportunities.  While the Cardinals, Giants and Nationals weren’t necessarily near the top in all key areas, they were more efficient in these aspects and were more consistent across the categories than the Reds were.  They were rarely ranked in the bottom third as the Reds were in some cases.  In sports, it’s usually better to be very good in a number of areas than to rely on one or two strenghts.  

(statistics taken from MLB.com)